In a quiet demographic shift with staggering implications, the natural-born population of the United States may be on track to fade into near extinction within the next 500 years.

Experts are raising alarms as projections show the number of U.S.-born citizens could fall below 10 million by the year 2625 if current fertility patterns persist, potentially unraveling the nation’s workforce, economy and social structure, as the Daily Mail reports.

Birth rates in the U.S. have been declining steadily since the late 1950s, when the last wave of the Baby Boom came to an end. Although the country’s overall population has grown—from 170 million to more than 330 million -- this expansion has largely been driven by immigration. As of 2023, the average American woman had just 1.6 children, far below the replacement level of 2.1, paving the way for a generational decline that statisticians warn could spell disaster within centuries.

According to recent U.S. Census data, if no significant changes occur through policy, immigration, or fertility, the number of natural-born Americans could be slashed by a third every 75 years. In a stunning projection, the native-born population is expected to fall to Civil War-era levels of around 60 million within the next 300 years and then crash to only 10 million by 2625 -- a number not seen since the early 1800s.

Crisis predicted as birthrates plunge

The root of this demographic unraveling lies in the deeply waning U.S. birthrate. Teen birthrates have dropped dramatically in the past 30 years -- by as much as 75% -- while women in their twenties are also giving birth far less frequently. Among women aged 20 to 24, birthrates have declined by 44%, and those aged 25 to 29 have seen a 23% drop.

Although births among women over 30 have increased -- by 24% for women aged 30–34, 90% for ages 35–39, and an astonishing 193% for those over 40 -- these gains fail to offset the large-scale generational collapse in fertility. Nearly half of all births now occur to women over 30, reflecting major cultural shifts toward later family planning.

As fertility rates plummet below sustainable levels, the U.S. is not alone. Italy’s rate has slipped to 1.2, Sardinia’s has dropped below 1.0, and South Korea posted the world’s lowest rate of 0.72 in 2023, barely rising to 0.75 the following year. According to the OECD, the global death rate is expected to outpace births by 2064 if current trends continue.

Immigration props up population figures -- for now

Since the passage of the Immigration and Nationality Act in 1965, about 72 million immigrants have arrived in the U.S., bolstering its population. But even this influx may not keep the country’s demographics from shifting dramatically. The Census Bureau estimates that incoming births will no longer maintain population growth by around 2080.

Unless new immigrants continue arriving in large numbers, America could see its total population decline from the current 330 million to just 226 million by 2100. Seventy-five years beyond that, the number could plunge to 140 million—similar to the nation’s size in the 1940s. Alarmingly, some projections show that by 2065, immigrants and their descendants could outnumber natural-born citizens.

Soaring costs, health concerns blamed

There are several reasons why Americans are having fewer children. Among the most pressing are high costs of living, unaffordable childcare, and concerns related to climate and environment. According to public policy expert Samantha Karlin, “daycare for one child can cost almost half of a family's income.” With the median household income for a family of three sitting around $71,000, daycare alone can run up to $2,400 a month per child.

Karlin also emphasizes that the U.S. is the only developed nation that lacks federally mandated paid parental leave, offering only 12 weeks of unpaid leave to most workers. By contrast, countries like Finland provide several months of both maternity and paternity leave with heavily subsidized child-care costs -- estimated around $275 per month.

Health factors further complicate the issue. Rising obesity rates, exposure to hormone-disrupting chemicals in plastic and water supplies, and delayed maternal age could all play roles in fertility struggles. These converging financial and medical pressures have led many would-be parents to postpone, limit, or forgo having children altogether.

Economic impact looms as workforce ages

According to economist Dr. Abigail Hall, the consequences of this population shift could be devastating. "Economically speaking, depopulation is detrimental for economic growth,” she warned. Hall noted that depopulation will likely make it harder to fill jobs, putting enormous pressure on labor markets.

As birthrates decline and the population ages, the ratio of working-age people to retirees drops. In the 1960s, there were six workers supporting each retiree globally; by 2035, that figure is expected to fall to just two. A smaller workforce will also mean fewer taxpayers to fund social services and repay national debt—a burden that could create enormous strain on the country’s financial systems.

Lessons to learn

No one is immune to the long-term consequences of a demographic decline. While this trend is not a traditional crime, the magnitude of its damage to society warrants a thoughtful and proactive response.

1. Support Pro-Family Policies: Expanding paid parental leave and offering affordable childcare can give families the support they need to raise the next generation. Stronger social safety nets play a vital role in encouraging people to start families without financial ruin.

2. Recognize the Link Between Health and Fertility: Addressing environmental and lifestyle factors that impair fertility—such as chemical exposure or obesity—can improve reproductive health outcomes across the population. More education and access to healthcare is essential.

3. Understand Economic Sustainability: Policymakers must prepare for the challenges of an aging population with fewer workers. Diversifying immigration policy, encouraging innovation, and reducing barriers to childcare services may be critical interventions. But no matter what steps are taken, cycles of change in society can affect anyone, and blame should never be placed on individuals who choose to have fewer or no children.

Why this story matters

This story matters because it highlights a slow-burning crisis that may reshape the very fabric of the United States. The choices made -- or not made -- today could echo for centuries and affect millions of lives. Understanding and addressing declining fertility is not just a personal issue, but a national and generational imperative.

Efforts from policymakers, business leaders, and families will determine whether the U.S. faces a future of dwindling opportunity or revitalization. Recognizing the warning signs now offers the country a chance to act before it’s too late.